Wednesday, 14 April 2010

Poll dancing and the General Election

Modesty isn’t a necessary attribute for a blogger. I would have perpetual writer’s block, as would any columnist if we were in awe of the depth of our own ignorance. But today I have to acknowledge that the UK Polling Report blog knows a whole lot more about analysing General Election opinion polls than I do. I suspect a lot of media operations dip into its comprehensive knowledge of poll trends and its links to a gamut of political information.
Currently its poll average is showing the Tories on 38%, Labour 31%, and the LibDems at 20%. As for the Populus poll which showed Labour had narrowed the Conservative’s lead to just 3 per cent, it commented: “A lot of this back and forth is probably just random sample error.”
With the three main party manifestos out of the way – but with the three-way TV debates to come – it looks like the Tories will be left with the largest number of seats after May 6 but short of an overall majority.
In such an outcome LibDem leader Nick Clegg recognises that he would first have to try and do a deal with the Tories. If that were not possible it is difficult to see the Liberals in coalition with Labour if Gordon Brown were to remain at Number 10.
It may be that the Tories form a minority government with help from some of the smaller parties. Labour, probably still led by Brown, would pray the house of cards swiftly collapses. This would be followed by a second election where he would expect a weary nation turn back to him for stability.
With the electoral bias favouring Labour, it is a tall order to expect the Tories to get passed the ‘magic’ 40% share. But in the interest of effective government, I hope this is the outcome. It is time for a change.

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What do you think? GC